The 2025 price trajectory for Iraqi diesel in Herat represents a textbook case of cascading supply chain failure followed by violent market correction. Beginning at 915 USD/MT in January, prices experienced extreme volatility—plummeting to 811 USD/MT in May before soaring to a historic 1400 USD/MT in October, then collapsing to 960 USD/MT by year-end (-5% annual return). This 73% peak-to-trough swing was driven not by global oil prices but by three sequential shocks:
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