Analytical Report on Gasoil Sales from Iraqi Kurdistan to Afghanistan (2024)
Introduction
This report provides an in-depth analysis of gasoil sales facilitated by the Oil Load Group in 2024, focusing on trade between Iraqi Kurdistan and Afghanistan. The report highlights pricing trends, market dynamics, and key factors affecting the region’s gasoil trade.
Price Trends: First Half of 2024
During the initial six months of 2024, gasoil prices in Herat, Afghanistan, reflected significant market movements influenced by exports from Iraqi Kurdistan:
January: Prices ranged from $840/MT to $875/MT. A mid-January dip to $840/MT likely stemmed from increased supply from Kurdistan, which was balanced by rising demand later in the month.
February: Prices stabilized around $865/MT as logistical efficiencies in Kurdish supply routes mitigated volatility.
March: A peak at $935/MT mid-month suggests heightened export activity and demand in Afghanistan for seasonal needs.
April: Prices fluctuated narrowly between $875/MT and $910/MT, reflecting stable production in Kurdistan.
May and June: Prices dropped from $870/MT in early May to $860/MT due to surplus inventories in Kurdish storage facilities, followed by a rebound to $910/MT in June amid pre-summer demand surges.
Key Observations
Kurdistan’s Role: The region’s robust production capabilities ensured supply stability, limiting excessive price hikes.
Cross-Border Impact: Efficient border logistics between Kurdistan and Afghanistan influenced pricing dynamics positively.
Price Trends: Third and Fourth Quarters of 2024
In the latter half of 2024, prices displayed sharp fluctuations, reflecting changes in export volumes and market conditions:
July: Prices climbed from $910/MT to $960/MT due to high demand in Afghanistan coinciding with increased production in Kurdistan.
August: Reached a record peak of $1,050/MT, driven by heightened seasonal demand and potential supply disruptions within the Kurdistan region.
September: Prices gradually declined from $1,000/MT to $950/MT as supply normalized.
October to December:
October: Prices peaked at $995/MT amid increased exports from Kurdistan.
November: Declined to $895/MT, reflecting reduced demand post-harvest season in Afghanistan.
December: Ended with a sharp rise to $990/MT, likely linked to winter heating demand in Afghanistan, supported by consistent Kurdish supplies.
Key Observations
Kurdistan’s Exports: The region’s exports were instrumental in meeting Afghanistan’s fluctuating demand.
Seasonal Volatility: Peaks in August and December underscore the importance of synchronized supply planning.
Influencing Factors
Key factors shaping the gasoil trade between Iraqi Kurdistan and Afghanistan in 2024 include:
Geopolitical Stability: Stability in Iraqi Kurdistan allowed uninterrupted exports to Afghanistan.
Seasonal Demand: Peaks in gasoil consumption aligned with agricultural and winter heating needs in Afghanistan.
Supply Chain Efficiency: Streamlined logistics from Oil Load Group minimized transit delays, ensuring timely deliveries.
Pricing Strategies: Competitive pricing by Kurdish suppliers supported sustained trade volumes.
Conclusion
The 2024 gasoil trade between Iraqi Kurdistan and Afghanistan highlights the critical role of stable supply chains and efficient logistics in managing price volatility. By leveraging its production strengths, Kurdistan has emerged as a key player in Afghanistan’s energy market.
Recommendations
Enhanced Infrastructure: Invest in storage and transport infrastructure within Kurdistan to mitigate supply shocks.
Dynamic Pricing Models: Align pricing with real-time demand data to optimize revenue.
Regional Cooperation: Strengthen cross-border trade agreements to ensure seamless gasoil exports.
Risk Mitigation Plans: Develop contingency plans to address geopolitical or logistical disruptions.
Price Charts Diesel MT/USD
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